Lower Interest Rates (Finally) on the Horizon Seeking to lower inflation, the Federal Reserve began raising borrowing costs in March 2022 and held them at the highest level in more than two decades for the past year. Recent data on returning price increases to more normal levels has been much more encouraging than earlier this year. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate [...]
Economic Resiliency The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations. Aggressive interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to slow the economy and combat a spike in inflation following the pandemic were widely predicted to result in a recession. This had often been the outcome historically when monetary conditions had been tightened in this manner. Instead, the economy demonstrated its strength [...]
Chugging Along At the beginning of this year, many economists forecast a significant recession to materialize by now. Instead, the economy has continued to grow despite the strong headwind from much higher interest rates. With inflation waning and continued broad-based momentum in the economy, it is possible that the Federal Reserve may be on its way to successfully engineering the [...]
2023 Outlook Inflation heated up throughout 2022, prompting an aggressive response from the Federal Reserve to bring it back under control. The Fed increased short-term interest rates from 0.1% to 4.4% by year-end and signaled more increases would follow. Higher bond yields for all maturities ensued, resulting in the worst return for stocks since 2008 and a bloodbath for bonds [...]
Waiting for the Pivot The financial markets continue to be laser-focused on inflation. Price increases that were initially thought to be transitory have instead been persistent and more widespread. The Federal Reserve has vowed to bring rising prices back under control, primarily by slowing the economy through interest rate increases. When inflation shows concrete signs of receding, the Fed will [...]
Fearing Inflation? We entered 2021 with promising new vaccines, oodles of fiscal and monetary stimulus and almost no inflation. We exited with a highly contagious Covid-variant, tighter monetary policy, 7% inflation and rising tensions with Russia and China. Despite these new headwinds, the economy continues its robust growth with few signs of significant easing anytime soon. All eyes in 2022 [...]
The Long View Third quarter economic activity was underwhelming. Earlier this year, investors looked forward to a robust reopening of the economy generated by a vaccine-led victory over the pandemic. While new Covid cases have recently fallen, the Delta variant was a clear headwind to third quarter activity along with supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Reviving the economy has [...]
Bursting at the Seams In these unprecedented times, changes in the economy have occurred very quickly. Last year, the pandemic suddenly decimated large numbers of businesses and entire industries globally while throwing many out of work. The ensuing rapid recovery has made those tragic events feel like a lifetime ago. With multiple tailwinds, economic growth has been very strong and [...]
New Cycle Emerging While we have by no means reached the finish line for the Covid pandemic, the economic reopening boom is upon us and it looks as if we are exiting the final phase of the economic crisis. The acceleration in vaccinations, easing of pandemic restrictions and the latest $1,400 stimulus checks have combined to quickly ratchet-up expectations for [...]
2021: Vaccine Versus Virus To say that 2020 was an unusual year would be an understatement. We experienced a global pandemic that caused a rapid worldwide economic recession. In the United States, the service sector was especially hard hit due to social distancing and self-quarantining containment strategies. Many people suddenly became unemployed and entire industries were decimated by lack of [...]
