Viral Pandemonium In just a matter of weeks, the Covid-19 virus has wreaked havoc on the global economy. Beginning with a small outbreak in Wuhan, China, this newest coronavirus spread rapidly in a geometric fashion similar to measles, first throughout Europe and subsequently the U.S. Currently, the best defense against this lethal and debilitating enemy is to quarantine the entire [...]
Marching Onward and Upward In 2019, the stock market performed well beyond what most investors would have reasonably anticipated. Powered by a domestic economy that refused to fall into recession and supported by the easing of interest rates and some progress on the trade front, the S&P 500 rose 29% for the year. With those stellar returns now behind us, [...]
"Whenever You Find Yourself on the Side of the Majority, it is Time to Pause and Reflect." In our last letter we noted that the length of our current economic expansion had moved into record territory, and it continues. However, now that we are 125 months into the longest expansion going back to 1854, investors are working hard to convince [...]
“It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again” That famous quote attributed to baseball legend Yogi Berra could just as easily apply to the stock market today. In fact, it strikes us that many of Mr. Berra's "Yogi-isms" apply to today's stock market, but we digress... Fear of a recession at the end of 2018 caused the Federal Reserve to announce early [...]
Economic Strength with a Dose of Uncertainty During the first four months of 2019, the S&P 500 advanced almost 18% as stocks quickly snapped back from the dive they took in the final quarter of last year. A shift in policy by the Federal Reserve, in which they no longer anticipate additional interest rate increases this year, ignited the V-shaped [...]
Fear Recedes as Quickly as it Arrived During the first quarter of 2019, the S&P 500 advanced 13% as stocks quickly snapped back from the dive they took in the final quarter of last year. A shift in policy by the Federal Reserve, in which they no longer anticipate additional interest rate increases this year, ignited the V-shaped recovery for [...]
Volatility Returns with a Vengeance Financial markets tested investor resolve as volatility began surging in the final quarter of 2018. Nearly steady gains through the first three quarters of the year produced a 9% rise for the S&P 500. Then volatility returned with a vengeance, driving the market down 14% in the final quarter and resulting in a 6% loss [...]
Seeing the Forest through the Trees The most challenging aspect of being a good investor is removing emotion from the decision-making process, and recent “breaking headlines” have thoroughly tested that resolve. The old adage about a bull market climbing a wall of worry has rarely been truer than it is currently. The S&P 500 is up 9.0% year to date [...]
