The Long View Third quarter economic activity was underwhelming. Earlier this year, investors looked forward to a robust reopening of the economy generated by a vaccine-led victory over the pandemic. While new Covid cases have recently fallen, the Delta variant was a clear headwind to third quarter activity along with supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Reviving the economy has [...]
Bursting at the Seams In these unprecedented times, changes in the economy have occurred very quickly. Last year, the pandemic suddenly decimated large numbers of businesses and entire industries globally while throwing many out of work. The ensuing rapid recovery has made those tragic events feel like a lifetime ago. With multiple tailwinds, economic growth has been very strong and [...]
New Cycle Emerging While we have by no means reached the finish line for the Covid pandemic, the economic reopening boom is upon us and it looks as if we are exiting the final phase of the economic crisis. The acceleration in vaccinations, easing of pandemic restrictions and the latest $1,400 stimulus checks have combined to quickly ratchet-up expectations for [...]
2021: Vaccine Versus Virus To say that 2020 was an unusual year would be an understatement. We experienced a global pandemic that caused a rapid worldwide economic recession. In the United States, the service sector was especially hard hit due to social distancing and self-quarantining containment strategies. Many people suddenly became unemployed and entire industries were decimated by lack of [...]
Covid and Gridlock The stock market has had to digest multiple significant events recently. The Covid virus is in the midst of a dramatic resurgence with a highly potent third wave, adding incremental risk to the pace of the continuing global economic rebound. A new administration with a very different agenda has been elected to the White House. Additionally, highly [...]
Covid and Gridlock The stock market has had to digest multiple significant news events recently. The Covid virus has made a dramatic resurgence in Europe and the United States and added incremental risk to the pace of the continuing global economic rebound. A new administration with a very different agenda appears to have been elected to the White House. Additionally, [...]
Forward Momentum Continues Global economic growth has moderated from its blistering mid-year pace, with a full recovery from the pandemic-induced lockdown recession not likely until well into next year. Failure to contain the virus has caused a slowing, but not stalling, of the expansion. Despite the more modest recent growth, the International Monetary Fund now predicts that the global economic [...]
The Bumpy Road to Recovery Earlier this year, global economies suffered rapid and intensive damage resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The shelter-in-place lockdowns needed to limit the extent of the virus outbreak caused significant collateral damage to the overall economy. Generous government support for the unemployed, in addition to massive capital outlays for businesses and credit markets, kept the economic [...]
Slowly Emerging from the Storm As businesses gradually begin to reopen, the upturn in the global economy has commenced. Trillions of dollars in federal spending and aggressive monetary easing provided the support mechanism needed to move us past the darkest hours of the Covid-induced economic decline. Meanwhile, scientific progress on vaccines is also rapidly progressing. The net result of these [...]
Uncharted Waters In the United States and around the world, Covid-19 has threatened the health of people and economies. Medical facilities have been overrun by sudden waves of patients, deaths have occurred in large numbers, entire populations have been under stay-at-home orders, economies have ground to a halt and stock market volatility has risen to extreme levels. Peoples' lives and [...]
